For Town, it will be their second consecutive bash at the play-offs, having lost the final to Shrewsbury Town on penalties last season. They will be no easy opponents. Although an in-form United thrashed them 5-0 on their own ground at the end of September, the Shots battled back from that heavy defeat and earned a deserved 1-1 draw at Brunton Park in the return over the Christmas holiday. Lacking Kevin Gray, a struggling Carlisle side only grabbed a point thanks to a late equaliser from substitute Glenn Murray. Since then both sides have found their best form at the same time and will both go into the two-legged encounter believing they can get through to the final. Shots boss Terry Brown has been trying the psychological tactic of talking up the effect a big United crowd might have on our players if things go wrong. "If things don't go right for Carlisle the crowd tend to get on their backs as they did when we went up there and took the lead earlier in the season. The pressure is very much on them. Our fans thought this might be a transitional season for us, but their expectancy was hugely different. They were expected to go up as champions, so we've got nothing to lose," he said earlier this week. In other words, we've already failed as we were expected to walk to the title and now we are under pressure and might crumble under the stern eyes of our critical supporters but plucky Aldershot, who had been expecting nothing more than mid-table re-building have already done far more than anyone could have imagined. What tosh. Some might buy that, but not me. The Shots were coming off a season which saw them miss out on promotion via a penalty shoot-out, so their fans would have been after promotion and nothing else. There is plenty of pressure on Town, too and I'm sure Simmo knows it. He's been keeping the preparation fairly low key, although ex-Blues favourite Andy Preece reckons the Cumbrians have the quality to march back up to the Football League at the first attempt. "Out of the teams in the play-offs they have the best squad and importantly, the best team," the Worcester City player-boss said. "Looking at that, I think they will do it. I've got no doubt they will go up, they have been very good recently." Simmo will have to cope without suspended central defender Danny Livesey so he may well choose to pair captain Kevin Gray with Dave Beharall again, with Paul Arnison and Tom Cowan in the full back positions. Adam Murray will be expected to work the hole behind the front two of Derek Holmes and Magno Vieira, who scored a hat-trick at Aldershot in the season's first encounter. The team practically picks itself, but the manager will be worried about the defence minus Livesey which lost two goals at home to Exeter. Lack of goals from the strike-force has been the main concern in recent months, with only recent signing Holmes looking up to scratch. But the midfield of Chris Lumsdon, Chris Billy, Peter Murphy and recent capture Murray have looked in good shape with Lumsdon bagging nine goals so far in his first season at Brunton Park. It could well be the midfield that swings this tie towards United, but expect a tight battle and a penalty shoot-out may still await at the end of the second leg. In that case, Carlisle's record of two wins and one defeat in three previous shoot-outs might be a good omen. Not so promising is an analysis of our results against the top seven clubs in the Conference. We've only won two games in 12 attempts, with the victory at Aldershot and a 3-1 home success over Hereford the only triumphs. The vast majority of our most convincing wins were against sides in the bottom half of the table with 7 goals against Farnborough, six each against Leigh and York City and 3-0 victories away to Forest Green and Canvey Island. You could argue we have become the Graeme Hick of the Conference league, the 'flat track bullies' who make the most of things when the opposition are poor, but struggle to assert ourselves against the better sides with more quality in their line-ups. We need to address that trend if we are to win the play-offs and I'm sure Simmo and the coaching staff will be working on combatting Aldershot's strengths to make sure we do. Ex-Welsh international Darren Barnard and striker Tim Sills have been the players to catch the eye this season and Town played some decent passing football on a difficult surface at Brunton Park. Expect a much firmer surface tomorrow so I expect they'll be playing more of the same. Both sides like to pass it so it should be a decent contest. The most important thing from our point of view is to play with patience as two-legged ties are never won in the first 20 minutes. Goals will come if we keep the ball and play to our strengths through midfield. The second leg in front of a big Brunton crowd will be crucial. If we are level or better from the opening leg, I expect us to go through. But any margin of defeat will give us a really tough task, bearing in mind our poor record at home to the better sides and recent surprise losses to Forest Green and Exeter City, although these were both games we could afford to lose. Prediction: United to win 2-1 on aggregate. 1-1 at Aldershot, and 1-0 victory at Brunton Park in the return. Carlisle to meet Hereford in the final. |
