Starting at the bottom, Rochdale and Macclesfield are heading for the Conference. Martin Carruthers was an eye-catching signing for the Moss Rosers, but one striker does not a season make. See Stevens, Ian. I reckon this year their poor attendances will catch up with them - Macc to go down. Rochdale may regret parting company with the skilful and wise old head that is Paul Simpson. Finished last season poorly after a good start and the downward spiral may continue. Like Macc they don't have big support to pull them through, either. Plus my "big club" theory held up last season as ourselves, Swansea and Brittle Rovers survived, with Shrews and Exes ("small" clubs) both dropping. Rochdale and Macc fit the bill perfectly. Consider recent history of relegated clubs: 96-97 "small" Hereford (mascot is a bull - no comment needed) Torquay and York won't do as well as last season and one of Swansea or Bristol Rovers may have another stinker. Cheltenham could go into freefall but should just about survive. Kidderminster may struggle a bit too. The three to go up will be Scunthorpe, Huddersfield and Oxford. Scunthorpe looked a good compact side when they came here last season. They beat us twice, the only team to do this, despite our desperate home form. They were a good mix of youth and experience. Peter Beagrie didn't look out of place in Division 3 and I don't think they'll miss Martin Carruthers too badly. Plus Alex Calvo-Garcia is a very cultured player in midfield. Huddersfield, despite all their off-field troubles should return to Div 2 quickly. Andy Booth will fill his boots at this level and despite selling Martin Smith to big-spending Northampton, they have enough depth plus huge gates by Div 3 standards to ensure a promotion campaign. Oxford built strongly last season under Ian Atkins. Akkers is a very shrewd operator at this level and I don't think he'll miss the chance to go up after the disappointment of being pipped for the play offs by Lincoln. They will be a strong, functional team as ever and won't give much away. Dull, even boring, but probably effective. My four for the play-offs are Hull, Northampton, Yeovil and Cambridge. Hull are always tipped to win the division which to me is crazy as they are patently not the best team but gates of 12-14,000 and the wise head of Peter Taylor in charge is likely to pay off eventually and they should make the top six this season. Northampton may have played cobblers last term but they have invested heavily and that should mean a play-off place. I share doubts with others about the tactically defensive Martin Wilkinson but he has enough talent in his squad to make it. Paul Reid and Peter Clark are both CUFC old boys who could make a splash. Yeovil are too good not to have a bash in the post-season shoot-out. I don't think they quite have the quality to do a Rushden but they have enthusiastic support and will score lots of goals. Finally Cambridge may just win what is likely to be another close battle for the final place. Lincoln should run them close and relegated Mansfield may be a good outside bet despite their rickety defence. I fancy Cambridge will score enough to make it. Shane Tudor, Paul Wanless and Dave Kitson are all good performers. As for ourselves, try as I might I can't quite see us getting promoted this season. Extreme optimism is a bit hard to maintain after so many disappointing campaigns. As long as there are no weeks spent at the bottom of the table, I'll be reasonably content. The squad seems well prepared and I reckon a solid start will see us in or around the middle part of the table. 14th-18th looks like our likely finishing bracket. And to those who might think a prediction for CUFC of 14th-18th is a bit gloomy, well come on guys I'm being cheerily optimistic here! This is our form over the last 6 seasons: 23-23-23-22-17-22 !!! 14th? I'd bite someone's hand off, I really would. Now, having reduced the 2003-04 season down to an almost mathematical formula, I will doubtless be left with egg on my face. Still, I'd rather be in a very unpredictable and extremely competitive division than the increasingly soulless Premiership. Don't get me wrong, in an ideal world I'd love to be up there but as John Courtenay never tires of telling us, the Premiership is now plastic football and he hates it. So do I. Seeing as our chances of ever reaching that level are about 0.001 out of 100, I can say that without fear of looking a fool. I think. Al |
